Climate Scenario Analysis

Understand how different climate futures could impact your business.

Regulation, expectations and resilience are pushing businesses to act.

Climate Scenario Analysis (CSA) helps organisations understand how different climate pathways could impact their strategy, business model and resilience over time.

What was once viewed as a tick-box exercise is now a board‑level tool - expected to inform real decisions, not just disclosures.

CSA: requirements, board expectations, and common challenges

What good Climate Scenario Analysis looks like in practice

Most organisations sit somewhere between compliance and strategic use. We help clients move intentionally and proportionately along that maturity curve.

Basic

CSA is run with no clear purpose beyond compliance.
Outputs are produced but rarely used or referenced in decision making.
Limited coverage, with clear gaps in scope.

Maturing

CSA is conducted for a limited number of specific purposes (e.g. flood risk modelling), with partial coverage focused on the most material risks and known gaps where further analysis is not undertaken.
Outputs are used in specific contexts but not consistently across the business.
Time horizons are not consistently considered – short-term analysis may inform decisions, while medium- and long-term risks are underexplored, misunderstood, or not meaningfully embedded in decision-making.

Mature

Each CSA exercise has a clearly defined purpose, linked to decisions it is intended to inform.
Outputs are actively used to inform strategy, risk management and board discussions.
CSA is conducted for material risks, used to understand emerging risks, and applied across multiple purposes such as risk identification, materiality assessments and testing the viability of transition plans.

How we can help

CSA strategy
We help clients define the purpose of their CSA and what the analysis is intended to inform. This includes setting clear purpose statements, use cases, and documenting scenario components. Together this creates a proportionate CSA strategy, aligned to materiality. The focus is on running the right analyses for the business, not everything possible
CSA maturity assessment
We assess whether CSA is being done in a way that works for your business today. We look at current practice, ambition and gaps, and agree how CSA should develop over time in a pragmatic and proportionate way.
Designing and running the analysis
We support clients to design and run CSA that is fit for purpose. This can range from facilitating workshops through to helping interpret more complex modelling. Our climate, risk, data and actuarial specialists work together to turn analysis into insights that can actually be used.

How scenario analysis affects your sector

Listed companies

CSA supports UK SRS and IFRS S2 reporting by demonstrating how climate‑related risks and opportunities are assessed and how resilient strategy is across different future outcomes.

Large private companies

CSA supports TCFD reporting and upcoming UK SRS and IFRS S2 reporting by demonstrating how climate‑related risks and opportunities are assessed and how resilient strategy is across different future outcomes.

Insurers

CSA supports meeting PRA expectations under SS5/25, helping insurers explore longer‑term risks to underwriting, reserving, investments and business models in a proportionate way.

Banks and building societies

Used to meet PRA expectations under SS5/25 by supporting forward‑looking assessment of climate‑related risks, testing resilience and informing strategy, risk appetite and capital planning.