What is climate scenario analysis?


CSA is a forward looking assessment of how an organisation may be affected under different climate and economic futures. It applies structured, plausible climate scenarios — such as rapid transition, delayed action or limited transition — to explore how the climate and wider economy could evolve under different pathways.

CSA can range from qualitative desktop assessments, used to identify strategic vulnerabilities and areas of exposure, through to more complex quantitative modelling to estimate potential financial impacts. The approach taken depends on an organisation’s size, complexity, sector, risk profile and objectives. There is no one size fits all approach, and regulators increasingly expect this proportionality to be reflected in practice.