2026 Autumn Budget
Preview and predictions
The Autumn Budget on 28 October 2026 will be the first Budget delivered by Chancellor John Healey and comes at a pivotal moment for the new government.
As businesses and individuals look for clarity and stability, questions remain over how the government will balance growth ambitions with the need to raise revenue. Our specialists will be analysing the latest developments and sharing their predictions to help businesses and individuals understand the implications and plan with confidence.
Events
Autumn Budget 2026: Expert analysis and insights
Autumn Budget 2026: Live watch-along and expert discussion
Autumn Budget 2026
Autumn Budget 2026: Live watch-along
What we understand so far
The government is expected to maintain its commitment not to increase Income Tax, VAT or National Insurance rates during this Parliament.
However, as these taxes account for a significant proportion of government revenue, the Chancellor has limited options for raising additional funds. Combined with the government's fiscal rules, this raises questions about how future spending commitments and policy priorities will be funded and whether further tax rises will be needed to plug the gap.
While no increase to Capital Gains Tax (CGT) has been confirmed, it remains one of the taxes most frequently cited as a potential source of additional revenue in the Autumn Budget. Speculation has been fuelled by previous comments from senior politicians about taxing wealth more effectively, although CGT rates were only increased in October 2024. Any further changes would need to balance revenue-raising ambitions against concerns about their impact on entrepreneurship, investment and the UK's attractiveness as a place to do business.
Business rates reform remains an area to watch ahead of the Autumn Budget. The government has already confirmed a 20% business rates discount for eligible pubs, social clubs and live music venues in England from April 2027, alongside a freeze in real-terms bills for qualifying venues.
However, key details are awaited, including which larger venues will be excluded. Hotels, restaurants and cafes are not currently covered, while wider reforms to the business rates system, including potential changes to Small Business Rates Relief, are expected to be announced at the Budget.
Corporation Tax is currently not widely expected to increase in the Autumn Budget. The Labour 2024 manifesto committed to maintaining the main rate of Corporation Tax at 25%, alongside retaining permanent full expensing and the Annual Investment Allowance. While there is little indication these commitments will change, an early election could bring forward the prospect of a different approach.
Our Partners’ latest insights
Robert Marchant, Head of Tax: The Chancellor should prioritise tax simplification, investment and sustainable revenue raising, while avoiding measures that could undermine business confidence. We would welcome a focus on modernising the UK’s tax administration, making tax compliance more efficient and measures to unlock economic growth.
A key priority should be further simplifying HMRC processes and reducing the complexity of tax administration. Too many interactions with HMRC remain unnecessarily complex, while recent years have seen the introduction of new taxes and levies that add further compliance requirements. The result is that many spend what could be argued as a disproportionate amount of time on tax administration, rather than focusing on growing their business.
The government should also strengthen incentives for business investment by protecting valuable corporate tax reliefs and maintaining a competitive environment for innovation and growth. Any reforms should provide certainty and stability, enabling businesses to make long-term investment decisions.
Finally, the Budget should continue efforts to modernise the tax framework through clearer reporting requirements, proportionate penalties and improved dispute resolution processes, helping to increase tax revenues through better compliance and tax collections rather than the current trends of introducing new taxes, the freezing of thresholds or the removal of reliefs.
Pete Fairchild, National Head of Private Clients: Pete Fairchild: The new Chancellor is encouraged to calm the troubled waters of the UK economy by introducing measures that bring certainty to taxpayers over several years, enabling them to plan effectively, rather than forcing individuals to keep chopping and changing arrangements. Individuals and businesses are pleading for stability after a series of knee-jerk reactions on tax legislation.
There are widespread calls for measures that stimulate productivity and investment in the private sector. Businesses are seeking certainty regarding corporate taxation and enhanced incentives for innovation, particularly in green technology and digital infrastructure.
Furthermore, hard-working taxpayers would welcome targeted measures that alleviate pressure on household budgets, without fuelling inflationary risks.
Simplification around tax compliance and administration is also seriously overdue.
Ultimately, the budget must strike a careful balance between fiscal responsibility and ambitious growth.
Laurence Field, Partner, Corporate Tax: There is a straightforward solution to the UK’s fiscal challenges: growth.
Growth requires investment, and much of that needs to come from overseas. To attract it, we need to understand how international investors view the UK.
Regulatory uncertainty, planning delays, a lack of specialist space and increasing bureaucracy can all deter investment. The trend of high-profile companies leaving UK markets or listing overseas also reinforces concerns about the UK's ability to support long-term growth and scaling.
We should not underestimate the post-Brexit reality. While trade frictions are now largely factored into investment decisions, the UK is no longer seen as a straightforward gateway to Europe, meaning its other strengths must work harder to attract capital.
There are still significant advantages. The UK remains an open economy with a strong professional services sector, world-class universities, a respected legal system and deep expertise in innovation, life sciences and technology.
The message from international investors is clear: capital is available, but the UK must become an easier place in which to do business if it wants to unlock growth.
Nick Latimer, Partner, Private Clients:
Steven Edwards, Partner, Insolvency and Restructuring:
Frequently asked questions: Budget 2026
The UK Budget sets out the government’s plans for taxation, public spending and the economy, informed by independent forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). The government has committed to one annual Budget, usually in the autumn, alongside a Spring Statement, giving businesses greater certainty and time to prepare for changes.
What the Budget does:
- Taxation: Announces changes to income tax, national insurance, business taxes, and duty rates.
- Public Spending: Allocates funding for major public services, including the NHS, schools, and defence.
- Economic Forecasts: Publishes independent economic and fiscal growth forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility
It has not yet been announced, but in previous years most fiscal statements to Parliament are made at approximately 12:30pm, straight after the Prime Minister’s questions.
Government ministers use red boxes to carry official briefing papers, but the Chancellor’s has become an enduring symbol of Budget day. The tradition dates back to 1860, when William Gladstone carried his speech from Downing Street to the House of Commons. Today, the Chancellor holding up the red box outside Downing Street remains one of the day’s defining images. Fittingly, the word ‘Budget’ comes from the French ‘bougette’, meaning ‘little bag’.
The OBR stands for the Office for Budget Responsibility, which is the official independent economic and fiscal forecaster for the United Kingdom.
They have five main roles:
- Economic Forecasting: providing independent forecasts for the UK economy, including predictions for GDP growth, inflation, employment, and wages.
- Public Finances Analysis: tracks and forecasts government tax receipts, public spending, borrowing, and national debt levels.
- Scrutiny of Policy: evaluates government tax and welfare policy costings for each official Budget and Spring Statement.
- Checking Fiscal Targets: independently assesses how well the government is performing against its own self-imposed fiscal rules and targets.
- Long-Term Sustainability: publishes periodic reports analysing long-term pressures on public finances, such as an ageing population or climate costs.
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