Off the pitch: tackling the rising threat of match-fixing in football
How forensics teams can help
Unfortunately, match fixing prevails as one of the most significant threats to the integrity of sport. While on-pitch manipulation may be hard to spot—perhaps an intentional foul, a skied penalty or even an open-goal miss—the scale and organisation behind these events can be a lot more premeditated than meets the eye. We see that it is often not what happens on the pitch that exposes the misconduct, but what happens off it, in the form of spreadsheets, betting markets and data trails.
The growing scale of match-fixing across sports
In recent years, we have seen several high-profile match fixing cases emerge across multiple sports throughout Europe, not only in football, but also in tennis, boxing, cricket and rugby. While tackling match-fixing has always been a mission for the major footballing organisations, such as Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) and Union of European Football Associations (UEFA), platforms like Sportradar and the European Sport Security Association (ESSA) now work closely with investigators to monitor matches in real-time.
In its most recent annual report covering 2023, Sportradar flagged over 1,300 suspicious matches globally, with 775 in football alone. It is estimated that more than £103 million in global betting turnover is tied to manipulated matches each year. This reflects an increasingly coordinated, calculated and lucrative threat to sport’s financial and reputational integrity.
How forensic teams uncover the fix
Forensic and cyber teams play a crucial role in identifying and responding to these threats. Advanced analytics tools scan betting markets for red flags, including significant deviations in pre-match odds, high-volume wagers on unusual outcomes, or patterns of betting that veer from expected norms. For example, a sudden spike in bets for a specific half-time scoreline during a lower-tier match can point to insider knowledge or deliberate match fixing. These irregularities are often cross-referenced with match data such as player performance statistics, substitution patterns, or foul counts to build a clearer picture.
Case study: The Lucas Paquetá investigationA notable current case involves West Ham United midfielder Lucas Paquetá, who became the subject of a formal FA investigation in 2023 following suspicious betting activity related to four yellow cards that he received in Premier League matches. Analysts observed a peculiar number of bets placed on Paquetá to be booked, many from newly created accounts registered in Brazil, shortly before fixtures where he did, in turn, go on to receive bookings. While the investigation remains ongoing, this case highlights how even small, seemingly inconsequential in-game occurrences can be exploited for financial gain. These types of ‘spot-fixing’ schemes can yield thousands in profit per instance and contribute to an annual global loss of millions across bookmakers and stakeholders. This behaviour also undermines the integrity of the sports that supporters love to watch, which inevitably will have an impact on the income these sports generate through reduced supporters, TV rights deals and other sponsorships. |
The role of forensic investigation
In situations like this, forensic professionals draw on a wide range of expertise. Financial investigators trace payment flows, reviewing bank transactions, sponsorship deals and third-party transfers for signs of concealed incentives or coordinated fraud. Simultaneously, IT forensic specialists collect and analyse digital evidence, including device metadata, encrypted messaging, deleted communications, and account activity to uncover potential collusion between players, agents and betting syndicates.
The use of VPNs, burner phones, or anonymised and encrypted messaging platforms such as Telegram and Threema adds further complexity to match-fixing investigations, especially when building legally sound and evidentially robust cases. These tools are often used deliberately to obscure identities, locations, and digital footprints, making it harder to attribute actions or communications to specific individuals with confidence. Consequently, technical rigour is required to maintain evidential integrity. Many of these investigations span jurisdictions (often operating in specific ‘safe haven’ locations) and involve regulators, bookmakers, and law enforcement agencies working collaboratively.
A global operation: Europol’s £21.5 million case
In one major case conducted by The European Union Agency for Law Enforcement Cooperation (Europol) in 2022, authorities dismantled a transnational match-fixing network that had generated over £21.5 million in illegal profits by manipulating the outcome of football and tennis matches across Europe.
The investigation spanned 11 countries, resulting in 47 arrests, the seizure of large sums of cash, and the recovery of digital evidence, including phones, laptops and encrypted data used to coordinate the fixes.
Looking ahead: Building a stronger defence
As match fixing techniques become increasingly complex and sophisticated, so too must the tools used by the powers at be in place to detect and prevent this misconduct. Forensic professionals have a key role to play, not only in investigating the suspicious activity after the occurrence, but also in helping sports bodies, regulators and betting firms build proactive systems of detection, strengthen internal controls, and educate stakeholders on fraud risk.
By combining financial analysis, cyber expertise, along with a deep understanding of behavioural patterns, we can contribute to protecting the credibility of sport. From grass-roots football to the Premier League, maintaining integrity requires vigilance, and forensic insight is a key part of that defence.
How can we help
Our Forensic Services team have worked on a number of football-related cases, including loss of profits, agent disputes, money laundering and accounting irregularities; we are always happy to have an initial discussion on any matters where we can add value and advice. For further information, please contact Martin Chapman or your usual Crowe contact.