GCC & UAE Economy & Market Update September 2026

UAE dealmaking stayed in the driver's seat through the summer. The UAE accounted for 80.9% of the GCC's $65.1 billion in H1 2026 M&A activity - $52.6 billion across 131 deals - anchored by Dubai Aerospace Enterprise's $9 billion Macquarie AirFinance acquisition. The period's biggest headline came in July, when e& agreed to exit its entire Vodafone stake for $5.95 billion, one of the region's largest outbound divestments of the year.

Dubai's real estate market held its value even as volumes cooled. August saw 11,147 home sales worth AED 21.43 billion, down 11.5% month-on-month, but sales above AED 10 million jumped 29.5% as buyers moved up-market. Year-to-date transactions have already reached AED 523.44 billion, more than half of all of 2025's activity, even as average prices posted their first annual dip since 2021.

The UAE economy grew 3% in Q1 2026, with non-oil activity now contributing nearly 80% of output. The Central Bank's full-year forecast remains a more measured 1.7%, and on 16 September it raised its base rate 25 basis points to 3.90%, tracking the US Federal Reserve. Inflation is expected to stay contained at 1.8%.

Startup funding swung sharply back toward equity. MENA startups raised $375 million in August, more than double July's total with the UAE capturing 97% of it, led by Mubadala-backed mobility company Moove's $250 million Series C at a $2.1 billion valuation. Debt financing, which had made up over half of July's funding, fell to just 2%.

Two long-term structural stories continued to build. The GCC-UK Free Trade Agreement, signed in May, remains on track for ratification, while DIFC and ADGM both posted record first-half growth, DIFC crossing 10,000 registered firms and ADGM's assets under management up 54% Y-o-Y cementing the UAE's position as the region's financial hub.