The July 2026 GCC & UAE Economy & Market 

July 2026's newsletter captures a market absorbing the economic shock of a regional conflict while continuing to attract capital. Gulf sovereign wealth funds — including ADIA, Mubadala and L'imad  kept dealmaking pace through the disruption, committing close to $26 billion between March and May alone and roughly $47 billion in acquisitions since the war's outbreak in late February, a pace up more than 120% year-on-year even as global M&A values fell. Notable June transactions included ADIA and Mubadala's joint ~$2 billion stake in EQT's £9.3 billion take-private of UK testing group Intertek.

Dubai's real estate market posted a sharp rebound in June, with sales volumes up 31% month-on-month to 13,766 transactions worth AED 32.66 billion, capping the second-strongest first half on record despite a dip from last year's exceptional comparison base. MENA startup funding cooled to $148.2 million in June, down from May but still up 190% year-on-year, with the UAE retaining its position as the region's top-funded market and enterprise AI emerging as the leading sector by capital raised.

On the macro front, the picture is more mixed than in recent months. The UAE's Central Bank confirmed 2025 growth came in at 6.2%, but sharply cut its 2026 forecast to just 1.7% — down from an earlier 5.6% projection citing the temporary but material impact of regional geopolitical developments on trade, tourism and shipping. Inflation expectations were also revised upward to 2.3%. Even so, the Bank projects a strong rebound to 9.8% growth in 2027, and by early July UAE oil exports had recovered to roughly 85% of pre-war levels as a new ceasefire held. Capital markets remained subdued, with the DFM and ADX both down year-to-date, though the pipeline continued to develop — headlined by the UAE's first sovereign retail T-Sukuk listing on July 2.