GCC & UAE Economy & Market Update October 2026

UAE dealmaking stayed concentrated in energy and sovereign capital. The UAE accounted for $52.6 billion, or 80.9%, of the GCC’s $65.1 billion in H1 2026 M&A value, according to Grant Thornton. Q3 added ADNOC Logistics & Services’ $1.3 billion tanker purchase, ADNOC Distribution’s $1 billion Shell South Africa deal and the $49 billion final close of Abu Dhabi’s MGX AI fund. Q3 tallies from the main trackers weren’t yet published.

Dubai property held its value while volumes cooled, and Abu Dhabi pulled ahead. Dubai recorded AED 574.12 billion in transactions from January to September, already 62.5% of 2025’s full-year total. Ready-property sales have overtaken off-plan by value, though September home sales were below last year’s record. Abu Dhabi’s January–September home sales reached AED 95.74 billion, up 111% on a year earlier.

The Central Bank sees 2026 as a trough, followed by a sharp rebound. Its September review trims 2026 growth to 1.6% and lifts the 2027 forecast to 10.4%, as oil output returns to near-record levels of 3.8 million barrels a day. Non-oil growth was 4.8% in Q1, led by financial services and construction. Banking assets reached AED 5.6 trillion, though inflation is forecast at 2.4% this year.

Saudi fintech lifted regional startup funding, with the UAE in second. MENA startups raised $1.1 billion in September and $1.65 billion in Q3, according to Wamda. Three Saudi deals made up nearly 70% of September’s total. The UAE raised $507 million across 41 deals in Q3, with Moove and Fasset accounting for about 63% of it.

UAE equities proved resilient in a difficult month. The DFM and ADX were the only GCC markets to end September higher while the MSCI GCC index fell 3.5%. The GCC-UK trade deal, whose negotiations concluded in May, still awaits final legal text and ratification, and no date has been announced for the Etihad IPO.