2020 Economic and Fiscal Snapshot

The numbers that matter.

| 7/8/2020
2020 Economic and Fiscal Snapshot
On July 8, 2020, Finance Minister Bill Morneau delivered an update in the form of an economic and fiscal snapshot which provided a detailed account of the government spending on pandemic-related support programs. What follows are some of the highlights. 

$343B Deficit Projection

Canadian GDPThe deficit for 2020-21 is expected to increase to $343.2 billion from the $34.4 billion pre-pandemic projection made in December 2019.

A large percentage of that additional deficit is attributed to the $212 billion in support measures the federal government is rolling out to individuals and businesses in response to the pandemic. In addition to pandemic program spending, the economic slowdown has added approximately $81.3 billion to the deficit for 2020-21.

Economy Shrinking by 6.8%

The economy is projected to shrink by 6.8 per cent in 2020 before rebounding by 5.5 per cent in 2021. Economy Shrinking

This is predicted to be the worst economic contraction since the Great Depression and far worse than that experienced during the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.

5.5M Lost Jobs, 10% Unemployment 

Unemployment due to COVIDBetween February and April, 5.5 million Canadians either lost their jobs or saw their hours significantly reduced. Those losses pushed the unemployment rate to 13.7 per cent in May — the highest rise on record — from a pre-crisis low of 5.5 per cent in January.

The unemployment rate is expected to be 9.8 per cent by the end of 2020.

Wage Subsidy Program to Cost $82.3B

Morneau announced a boost to the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy (“CEWS”) program, bringing its total budget to $82.3 billion, to account for its extension until the fall. Details on the expansion to the program will come soon for businesses that continue to require the CEWS to keep employees working.

As of June 29, the federal government approved over 538,000 CEWS applications from qualifying businesses.

Claim Period 1 (March 15 – April 11)
2.8 million employees received support
Average monthly payment of $2,061
Claim Period 2 (April 12 – May 9)
More than 2.7 million employees received support
Average monthly payment of $2,359
Claim Period 3 (May 10 – June 6)
Nearly 2 million employees received support
Average monthly payment of $2,331

Extra $10B for Employment Insurance Program

Employment InsuranceAs the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (“CERB”) program winds down, Morneau said the federal government plans to get the EI system up and running so that people will have confidence they'll be able to provide for themselves and their families. Government officials admit there will still need to be policy changes to the EI system to help some self-employed workers qualify, and capture EI-eligible workers who, due to the pandemic, haven't been able to work the necessary qualifying hours.

For a comprehensive breakdown of highlights from Canada’s COVID-19 Economic Response Plan, please click here to view Chart 1.6 in the Department of Finance’s complete Economic and Fiscal Snapshot 2020 report.

This article has been prepared for the general information of our clients. Please note that this publication should not be considered a substitute for personalized advice related to your situation.

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Adam Scherer
Managing Partner
Adam Scherer Professional Corporation