Building Risk Resilience in Geopolitical Uncertainty

Anand Unadkat:

Geopolitical events create friction that affects working capital, cash conversion cycles, and default behavior, so banks can no longer rely only on historical models. He explained that credit teams now assess “time to survive” in addition to probability of default, using expert judgment alongside statistical models to judge whether clients can withstand delays caused by route disruptions or macroeconomic realignments. He also noted that the UAE banking sector is structurally resilient, supported by strong capitalization, liquidity, and regulatory oversight.

Varun Gehani:

Compliance is now a frontline strategic function rather than a back-office obligation. He said UAE regulators have intensified scrutiny, citing large AML/CFT fines in 2025 and stronger expectations around onboarding, screening, corridor risk, and dynamic controls. He emphasized that compliance teams must adopt intelligence-led controls, device fingerprinting, geo-fencing, and continuous monitoring rather than relying on static policies.

Sabarish Raman:

The answer lies in combining the right tools with a clear risk appetite and strong internal thresholds. He explained that overnight batch screening is no longer enough, because sanctions can happen in near real time and false positives can overwhelm teams. The goal is to stop real threats while ensuring legitimate trade continues, which requires a fit-for-purpose model, human judgment, and a well-defined policy layer.

Varun Gehani:

Growth and risk appetite should be designed together, not treated as opposing forces. He said risk appetite must become a live board-level input into strategic planning, with risk-weighted growth pipelines, scenario planning, and regular regulator engagement. In his view, organizations should treat regulators as strategic stakeholders and embed controls into the product lifecycle from day one.

Sabarish Raman:

Culture matters as much as systems. He stressed that tools and frameworks fail when the organization lacks the right mindset, and that risk culture must start at the top and cascade through every level of the business. In his view, timeliness, transparency, and shared responsibility are essential to true operational resilience.

Anand Unadkat:

The trade-off is now speed versus control, not just cost versus resilience. He explained that banks increasingly rely on cloud, SaaS, and third-party partners, which means resilience must be designed for graceful degradation rather than perfect uptime. He described risk as a guardrail that allows business to move quickly and safely, especially in a fast-moving UAE market.

Sabarish Raman:

Cybersecurity must be treated as a business risk, not an IT issue. He pointed out that attacks now target payments, trade finance, and operations, not just data, so cyber strategy must sit in the boardroom and not merely under IT. He argued that annual assessments are no longer sufficient in an AI-driven threat environment.

Varun Gehani:

Yes, but only when automation is fit for purpose and paired with human oversight. He noted that traditional AML systems produce high false-positive volumes, so teams need AI agents, RPA, and machine learning to reduce noise and speed up decision-making. He added that the point where detection becomes decision still requires human judgment.

Anand Unadkat:

Stop acting like an auditor and start acting like a commercial business partner. He encouraged young professionals to translate complex risk concepts into business language, help structure deals, and support growth while preserving governance and controls. He said this is especially relevant in the UAE, where the financial ecosystem is actively funding its own transition.