Insurance Industry Outlook: Q&A With ITR Economics

Eric Post, Jenna Allen
5/18/2026
Insurance Industry Outlook: Q&A With ITR Economics
ITR - 240 - graphic A
ITR-02-Accelerating-B
ITR-03-Slowing-C
ITR-04-Recession-D

Nominal $ Trends in Phase C; Most Growth Due to Pricing

Personal Consumption Expenditure for Insurance by Sector

Key: A — Recovery B — Accelerating Growth C — Slowing Growth D — Recession

12/12 Phase Annual Data Trends (Bil. $)
Life Insurance ($)  2.3% C $130.2
Life Insurance (deflated) -1.5% D  
Home Insurance ($) 9.9% C $20.9
Home Insurance (deflated) 0.9% B
Motor Vehicle Insurance ($)  6.3%  C $108.5
Motor Vehicle Insurance (deflated)  1.5%  C
Source: ITR Economics

Is Growth Driven by Demand or Pricing?

Pricing has been a main driver of industry performance over the past few years. Insurers pushed through significant increases, particularly in property and casualty lines. That trend is now beginning to ease.

Pricing indicators show that life insurance pricing is picking up modestly. Meanwhile, home and motor vehicle insurance prices are still rising, but these pricing pressures are in slowing growth trends. This shift reflects broader economic conditions, including a cooling housing market, softer vehicle demand, and some easing in overall inflation. As pricing tailwinds fade, future revenue growth will depend more on volume and exposure growth, which may be harder to achieve.

Life Insurance Pricing Strengthening; Home, Motor Vehicle Slowing

Insurance Expenditures Implied Prices

Key: A — Recovery B — Accelerating Growth C — Slowing Growth D — Recession
Category 12/12 Phase 3/12 3/12 Phase
Life Insurance 3.8% B 4.0% B
Home Insurance 8.9% C 6.5% C
Motor Vehicle Insurance 4.7% C 2.4% C
Source: ITR Economics
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Joseph Kowalczyk
Joseph W. Kowalczyk
Managing Partner, Insurance
Eric Post at ITR Economics
Eric Post
Director, ITR Economics

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