Some key messages

• Strategies have to become more dynamic and focused on the short-term.
• Monitoring and measurement of progress against the strategy is more frequent.
• Strategies and tactics have to be developed on the premise that several different outcomes are possible.
• Scenario planning is valuable in helping cope with the uncertain environment and can help identify the drivers of change
• There is a need to put values and analysis on different scenarios and this requires out of the box thinking from different perspectives. Horizon scanning is important.
• Scenarios are often wrongly treated as forecasts and the range of scenarios is too simplistic.
• Charities should develop action plans for different scenarios by setting and monitoring trigger points along with trend analyses.
• Look beyond the obvious - consider both direct and indirect drivers and short and long term implications.
• Be aware of the importance of remote events that together can have a significant impact.
• Probability has less value for risks that occur outside the norm and the past is not the best indicator of the future
• Lower significance risks can escalate to a very high impact risk because of risk interactions.
• It is important to understand the core processes and sub processes and their role in achieving strategy.
• Governance structures, board and management competencies and frameworks for decision making may need to be revisited.
• The reserves policy should link with the risk management and forecasting process.
• Understand what the reserves represent and look at the ease with which they can be made available in times of need.
• The continued uncertainty and volatility of income has dramatically increased the exposure to liquidity risk.